From bd4471d94cba5fb1186647dac970d113048eb75e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Sascha Rommelfangen Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2018 11:27:12 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] some changes and TODO --- best-practices/expressing-confidence.adoc | 16 +++++++++------- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/best-practices/expressing-confidence.adoc b/best-practices/expressing-confidence.adoc index 598f593..157f857 100644 --- a/best-practices/expressing-confidence.adoc +++ b/best-practices/expressing-confidence.adoc @@ -1,16 +1,18 @@ -=== Expressing confidence in an analysis +=== Expressing confidence/estimative probability in an analysis -NOTE: Expressing the confidence or the lack of in an analysis is critical step to help a partner or a third-party to check your hypotheses and conclusions. +NOTE: Expressing the confidence or the lack of it in an analysis is a critical step to help a partner or a third-party to check your hypotheses and conclusions. -Analysis or reports are often shared with technical details but often lack the overall confidence level associated. +Analysis or reports are often shared together with technical details, but often lack the associated overall confidence level. +[TODO: describe estimative probability] Adding confidence or estimative probability have multiple advantages such as: -- Allowing receiving organisations to filter, classify and score the information in an automated way -- Information with low-confidence can still be shared and reach communities or organisations interested in such information without impacting organisations filtering out by confidence level -- Supporting counter and competitive analyses to validate hypotheses expressed in original reporting +- Allow receiving organisations to filter, classify and score the information in an automated way based on related tags +- Information with low-confidence can still be shared and reach communities or organisations interested in such information without impacting organisations filtering out by increased confidence level +- Support counter analyses and competitive analyses to validate hypotheses expressed in original reporting +[TODO: define counter and competitive analyses] -Complement analysis with contrary evidences is also very welcome to ensure the original analysis and the hypotheses evaluated. +Complement analysis with contrary evidences is also very welcome to ensure the original analysis and the hypotheses are properly evaluated. TIP: MISP taxonomies contain an exhaustive list of confidence levels including words of https://www.misp-project.org/taxonomies.html#_estimative_language[estimative probability] or confidence in analytic judgment.