=== Expressing confidence/estimative probability in an analysis

NOTE: Expressing the confidence or the lack of it in an analysis is a critical step to help a partner or a third-party to check your hypotheses and conclusions.

Analysis or reports are often shared together with technical details, but often lack the associated overall confidence level.
[TODO: describe estimative probability] 

Adding confidence or estimative probability have multiple advantages such as:

- Allow receiving organisations to filter, classify and score the information in an automated way based on related tags
- Information with low-confidence can still be shared and reach communities or organisations interested in such information without impacting organisations filtering out by increased confidence level
- Support counter analyses and competitive analyses to validate hypotheses expressed in original reporting
[TODO: define counter and competitive analyses]

Complement analysis with contrary evidences is also very welcome to ensure the original analysis and the hypotheses are properly evaluated.

TIP: MISP taxonomies contain an exhaustive list of confidence levels including words of https://www.misp-project.org/taxonomies.html#_estimative_language[estimative probability] or confidence in analytic judgment.

TIP: threat-intelligence.eu includes an overview of the https://www.threat-intelligence.eu/methodologies/[methodologies and process to support threat intelligence].