misp-training/a.5-decaying-indicators/content.tex

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\begin{frame}[t,plain]
\titlepage
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Indicators - Problem Statement}
\begin{itemize}
\item Various users and organisations can share data via MISP, multiple parties can be involved
\begin{itemize}
\item \textbf{Trust}, \textbf{data quality} and \textbf{time-to-live} issues
\item Each user/organisation has \textbf{different use-cases} and interests
\begin{itemize}
\item Conflicting interests such as operational security, attribution,... (depends on the user)
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\item[] $\rightarrow$ Can be partially solved with \textit{Taxonomies}
\pause
\vspace{0.5cm}
\item Attributes can be shared in large quantities (more than 7.3 million on \texttt{MISPPRIV})
\begin{itemize}
\item Partial info about their \textbf{freshness} (\textit{sightings})
\item Partial info about their \textbf{validity} (last update)
\end{itemize}
\item[] $\rightarrow$ Can be partially solved with our \textit{Decaying model}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{\textit{Sightings} - Refresher}
\textit{Sightings} add temporal context to indicators.
A user, script or an IDS can extend the information related to indicators by reporting back to MISP that
an indicator has been \texttt{seen}, or that an indicator can be considered as a \texttt{false-positive}
\vspace{0.5cm}
\begin{itemize}
\item \textit{Sightings} give more credibility/visibility to indicators
\item This information can be used to {\bf prioritise and decay indicators}
\end{itemize}
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[scale=1.00]{pics/sightings.png}
\end{center}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Organisations opt-in - setting a level of confidence}
MISP is a peer-to-peer system, information passes through multiple instances.
\begin{itemize}
\item Producers can add context (such as tags from \textit{taxonomies}, \textit{galaxies}) about their asserted confidence or the reliability of the data
\item Consumers can have different levels of trust in the producers and/or analysts themselves
\item Users might have other contextual needs
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Taxonomies - Refresher (1)}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/taxonomies.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Taxonomies - Refresher (2)}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/taxonomy-admiralty-scale.png}
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\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Taxonomies - Refresher (3)}
\begin{itemize}
\item Some taxonomies have \texttt{numerical\_value}
\begin{itemize}
\item[$\rightarrow$] Can be used to prioritise \textit{Attributes}
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\vspace{1cm}
\begin{footnotesize}
\begin{columns}[T] % align columns
\begin{column}{.40\textwidth}
\begin{tabular}{|ll|}
\hline
\textbf{Description} & \textbf{Value}\\
\hline
Completely reliable & 100\\
Usually reliable & 75\\
Fairly reliable & 50\\
Not usually reliable & 25\\
Unreliable & 0\\
Reliability cannot be judged & 50 \textbf{\color{red}?}\\
Deliberatly deceptive & 0 \textbf{\color{red}?}\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{column}%
\hfill%
\begin{column}{.48\textwidth}
\begin{tabular}{|ll|}
\hline
\textbf{Description} & \textbf{Value}\\
\hline
Confirmed by other sources & 100\\
Probably true & 75\\
Possibly true & 50\\
Doubtful & 25\\
Improbable & 0\\
Truth cannot be judged & 50 \textbf{\color{red}?}\\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{column}%
\end{columns}
\end{footnotesize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Scoring Indicators: Our solution}
$$ \texttt{score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute}) = \texttt{base\_score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute, Model}) \;\;\bullet\;\; \texttt{decay}(\texttt{\tiny Model, time}) $$
Where,\vspace{0.5cm}
\begin{itemize}
\item \texttt{score} $ \in [0, +\infty $
\item \texttt{base\_score} $ \in [0, 100] $
\item \texttt{decay} is a function defined by model's parameters controlling decay speed
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: \texttt{Event/view}}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/decaying-event.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}[fragile]
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: API result}
\texttt{/attributes/restSearch}
\begin{lstlisting}
"Attribute": [
{
"category": "Network activity",
"type": "ip-src",
"to_ids": true,
"timestamp": "1565703507",
[...]
"value": "8.8.8.8",
"decay_score": [
{
"score": 54.475223849544456,
"decayed": false,
"DecayingModel": {
"id": "85",
"name": "NIDS Simple Decaying Model"
}
}
],
[...]
\end{lstlisting}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: Playing with Models}
\begin{itemize}
\item \textbf{Automatic scoring} based on default values
\item \textbf{User-friendly UI} to manually set lifetime and decay parameters
\item \textbf{Simulation} tool
\item Interaction through the \textbf{API}
\item Opportunity to create your \textbf{own} formula or algorythm
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Scoring Indicators: \texttt{base\_score} (1)}
$$ \texttt{score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute}) = \texttt{base\_score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute, Model}) \;\;\bullet\;\; {\color{gray}\texttt{decay}(\texttt{\tiny Model, time})} $$
When scoring indicators\footnote{Paper available: \url{https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.11052}}, multiple parameters\footnote{at a variable extent as required} can be taken into account. The {\bf base score} is calculated with the following in mind:
\begin{itemize}
\item {\color{purple}Data reliability, credibility, analyst skills, custom prioritisation tags (economical-impact), etc.}
\item {\color{orange}Trust in the source}
\end{itemize}
\vspace{0.3cm}
$$\texttt{base\_score} = \omega_{tg} \cdot {\color{purple}tags} + \omega_{sc} \cdot {\color{orange}source\_confidence}$$
Where,
\begin{itemize}
\item[] $\omega_{sc} + \omega_{tg} = 1$
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Scoring Indicators: \texttt{base\_score} (2)}
Current implentation ignore \texttt{source\_confidence}:
$$\rightarrow \texttt{base\_score} = tags$$
\includegraphics[width=1.0\linewidth]{pics/bs-computation-steps.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Scoring Indicators: decay speed (1)}
$$ \texttt{score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute}) = {\color{gray}\texttt{base\_score}(\texttt{\tiny Attribute, Model})} \;\;\bullet\;\; \texttt{decay}(\texttt{\tiny Model, time}) $$
The \texttt{decay} is calculated using:
\begin{itemize}
\item The \texttt{lifetime} of the indicator
\begin{itemize}
\item May vary depending on the indicator type
\item short for an IP, long for an hash
\end{itemize}
\item The \texttt{decay rate}, or speed at which an attribute loses value over time
\item The time elapsed since the latest update or sighting
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Scoring Indicators: putting it all toghether}
$\rightarrow$ \texttt{decay rate} is \textbf{re-initialized upon sighting} addition, or said differently, the \texttt{score} is reset to its base score as new \textit{sightings} are applied.
$$score = base\_score \cdot \left( 1 - \left( \frac{t}{\tau_a} \right)^{\frac{1}{\delta_a}} \right) $$
\begin{itemize}
\item $\tau_a = $ \texttt{lifetime}
\item $\delta_a = $ \texttt{decay speed}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: Models definition}
\textit{Models} are an instanciation of the formula where elements can be defined:
\begin{itemize}
\item Parameters: \texttt{lifetime, decay\_rate, threshold}
\item \texttt{base\_score}
\item \texttt{default base\_score}
\item formula
\item associate \textit{Attribute} types
\item creator organisation
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: Models Types}
Multiple model types are available
\begin{itemize}
\item Default models: Models created and shared by the community. Available from \texttt{misp-decaying-models} repository\footnote{\url{https://github.com/MISP/misp-decaying-models.git}}.
\begin{itemize}
\item $\rightarrow$ Not editable
\end{itemize}
\item Organisation models: Models created by a user belonging to an organisation
\begin{itemize}
\item These models can be hidden or shared to other organisation
\item $\rightarrow$ Editable
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: Index}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/decaying-index.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: Fine tuning tool}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/decaying-tool.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: \texttt{base\_score} tool}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/decaying-basescore.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: simulation tool}
\includegraphics[width=1.00\linewidth]{pics/decaying-simulation.png}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}[fragile]
\frametitle{Implementation in MISP: API query body}
\texttt{/attributes/restSearch}
\begin{lstlisting}
{
"includeDecayScore": 1,
"includeFullModel": 0,
"excludeDecayed": 0,
"decayingModel": [85],
"modelOverrides": {
"threshold": 30
}
"score": 30,
}
\end{lstlisting}
\end{frame}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Creating a new decay algorithm (1)}
The current architecture allows users to create their \textbf{own} formulae.
\begin{itemize}
\item Create a new file \texttt{{\$}filename} in \texttt{app/Model/DecayingModelsFormulas/}
\item Extend the Base class as defined in \texttt{DecayingModelBase}
\item Implement the two mandatory functions \texttt{computeScore} and \texttt{isDecayed} using your own formula/algorithm
\item Create a Model and set the formula field to \texttt{{\$}filename}
\end{itemize}
Use cases:
\begin{itemize}
\item Add support for \textbf{more feature} (expiration taxonomy)
\item \textbf{Query external services} then influence the score
\item Completely \textbf{different approach} (i.e streaming algorithm)
\item ...
\end{itemize}
\end{frame}
\lstset{language=PHP}
\begin{frame}[fragile]
\frametitle{Creating a new decay algorithm (2)}
\lstset{basicstyle=\scriptsize}
\begin{lstlisting}
<?php
include_once 'Base.php';
class Polynomial extends DecayingModelBase
{
public const DESCRIPTION = 'The description of your new decaying algorithm';
public function computeScore($model, $attribute, $base_score, $elapsed_time)
{
// algorithm returning a numerical score
}
public function isDecayed($model, $attribute, $score)
{
// algorithm returning a boolean stating
// if the attribute is expired or not
}
}
?>
\end{lstlisting}
\end{frame}